Goals and Gaps: Ontario, National Supply Falling Short of Projected Housing Demand

Ontario has a great need for more affordable homes and has developed ambitious supply goals in response. But a new report from an Ottawa think tank is the latest indication that current housing targets are unlikely to be met over the next decade.

Ontario’s provincial government has set a goal of creating 1.5 million residential units by 2031 to address today’s estimated shortage of 500,000 homes and a projected shortfall of one million over the next nine years. The report by the Smart Prosperity Institute contends that the province is already falling behind, in part because Ontario municipalities do not share the sense of urgency, and haven’t planned for an adequate housing supply to meet future needs.

In London alone, the Institute estimates there is a need for 40,000 additional units by 2031. But London’s municipal government is planning for an increase that is less than half that number.

While creating new housing is important to most political leaders, there is also pressure on the local level to limit urban sprawl and protect Ontario’s disappearing farmland.

Nationwide, projections indicate housing supply will fall far short of goals well into the next decade.

A recent report by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMFC) estimates there will be two million new households in Canada by 2030. A 28 percent acceleration in residential construction would be needed just to keep pace with that increase.

This is unlikely to happen, according to the CMFC, for a number of reasons, including complex permit approval procedures, other types of regulations and mandates, skill shortages and supply chain disruptions, as well as neighborhood resistance to new construction.

For Gorge Holdings Inc., these obstacles have not been insurmountable. We are on pace with a number of important projects in southern Ontario, including:

In downtown St. Catharines, my company is working on plans to develop a new luxury rental building consisting of approximately 150 high-quality units. The target audiences are young professionals, empty nesters and retirees. The project replaces an existing parking lot on Ontario Street, between Church Street and King Street. We believe the one-acre lot is in an ideal location for new residential units.

The property has close proximity to the 406 highway and QEW highway and is located just a block away from Montebello Park. The location offers great walkability to all that downtown has to offer, such as shops, restaurants, cafes, the Performing Arts Centre and the Meridian Centre. It is centrally located in the Niagara region, with easy access to golf, wineries, Brock University, Port Dalhousie, walking and hiking trails, Niagara Falls, The Pen Centre, Niagara on the Lake and the U.S.

The development will help bring more activity to the downtown area, and in turn help small businesses increase their customer base. With more people living downtown, businesses will see the benefit of expanding their presence in the area.

Gorge Holdings is also currently finishing the development of 25 new residential single dwelling lots in Welland, Ontario. These lots are in a prime location that will be highly attractive for people considering a move to Welland. The site is located one block from Niagara Street, which has many restaurants, cafes, groceries stores and shops. The project is designed to complement the surrounding area and become a core element of the neighbourhood.

Another project we recently completed, named Bellevue North, is located in London, Ontario. We developed this project of 60 luxury rental units in partnership with Domus Developments. Bellevue North is a four storey building located adjacent to ponds, walking trails, and parks and is in close proximity to golf courses, dining, entertaining and shopping.